Olmaliq 4–0 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

Olmaliq

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lokomotiv

M. Mirakhmadov 60', 47'

Anzur Ismailov 13'

S. Haghnazari 3'

8/10/2022

Super League · Round 15OKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olmaliq55%

×Draw23%

Lokomotiv22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlmaliqExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.05

Olmaliq

1.81

Lokomotiv

1.05

Olmaliq creates 72% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 8 away

1.74

creates per match

1.13

0.97

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Olmaliq

1.74

Lokomotiv

1.13

allows per match

Olmaliq

0.97

Lokomotiv

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw

78%

Olmaliq or Lokomotiv

77%

Draw or Lokomotiv

45%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+

31%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals

84%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

54%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

27%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

65%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

28%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

72%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.74 + Lokomotiv defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

Lokomotiv attack 1.13 + Olmaliq defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Olmaliq scores more

55%

level

23%

Lokomotiv scores more

22%

Olmaliq at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

13'

28'

32'

33'

47'

52'

I. Rashidkhanov← M. Safarov

52'

N. Toshpo‘latov← G. Gulyamov

52'

O. Samuel← J. Jumaboyev

60'

M. Mirakhmadov

62'

J. Alijanov← J. Jaloliddinov

70'

M. Hasanov← D. Spătaru

70'

M. Kosimov← S. Haghnazari

73'

A. Abdullayev← S. Tursunov

77'

I. Nagaev← M. Meliev

90+2'

K. Mukhtarov

90'

B. Sobirov← M. Mirakhmadov

90'

E. Begimov← D. Axmadaliev

Olmaliq

Lokomotiv

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Mirakhmad

Manager: M. Qosimov

70'▲M. Hasanov←▼D. Spătaru

70'▲M. Kosimov←▼S. Haghnazari

73'▲A. Abdullayev←▼S. Tursunov

90'▲B. Sobirov←▼M. Mirakhmadov

90'▲E. Begimov←▼D. Axmadaliev

Olmaliq substitutes

HasanovKosimovAbdullayevSobirovBegimovBusinovErmatovRahimov

Manager: D. Korostichenko

52'▲I. Rashidkhanov←▼M. Safarov

52'▲N. Toshpo‘latov←▼G. Gulyamov

52'▲O. Samuel←▼J. Jumaboyev

62'▲J. Alijanov←▼J. Jaloliddinov

77'▲I. Nagaev←▼M. Meliev

Lokomotiv substitutes

RashidkhanovToshpo‘latovSamuelAlijanovNagaevOmonovMakharadzeJumayevKomilov

Match Recap: Olmaliq vs Lokomotiv

Olmaliq beat Lokomotiv 4-0 in Super League on August 10, 2022.

Goals: S. Haghnazari (3'), Anzur Ismailov (13'), M. Mirakhmadov (47', 60').

The match was played at OKMK Sport Majmuasi in Almalyk.

Olmaliq vs Lokomotiv — Super League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Olmaliq vs Lokomotiv