Lokomotiv 0–2 Olmaliq: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Olmaliq

K. Giyosov 88'

M. Kosimov 84'

5/14/2024

Super League · Round 7Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lokomotiv36%

×Draw30%

Olmaliq34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchOlmaliq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.05

Lokomotiv

1.08

Olmaliq

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 30 away

0.83

creates per match

1.10

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Lokomotiv

0.83

Olmaliq

1.10

allows per match

Lokomotiv

1.00

Olmaliq

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Olmaliq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

66%

Lokomotiv or Olmaliq

70%

Draw or Olmaliq

64%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

14%

Olmaliq wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

66%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

29%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

10%

Olmaliq 1+ goals

65%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

28%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

51%

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 0.83 + Olmaliq defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Olmaliq attack 1.10 + Lokomotiv defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

36%

level

30%

Olmaliq scores more

34%

Lokomotiv at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

24'

48'

51'

60'

S. Sindarov← D. Krajišnik

66'

A. Yuldashev

67'

A. Abdurahmonov← A. Kholmurodov

67'

I. Rukhadze← N. Abdurazzoqov

72'

S. Sindarov

84'

M. Kosimov

88'

K. Giyosov

89'

I. Abdullaev← S. Abdunabiyev

89'

L. Mirzayev← I. Bulatović

90+1'

I. Abdullaev

90+4'

M. Toshmatov← A. Komilov

90'

S. Abduhalilov← B. Kasymov

Lokomotiv

Olmaliq

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Y. Nazarov

60'▲S. Sindarov←▼D. Krajišnik

89'▲I. Abdullaev←▼S. Abdunabiyev

89'▲L. Mirzayev←▼I. Bulatović

Lokomotiv substitutes

SindarovAbdullaevMirzayevAbdujalilovKomilovAlokho'jaevAbrayevMamajonovKhudoyberganov

Manager: M. Kasimov

67'▲A. Abdurahmonov←▼A. Kholmurodov

67'▲I. Rukhadze←▼N. Abdurazzoqov

90+4'▲M. Toshmatov←▼A. Komilov

90'▲S. Abduhalilov←▼B. Kasymov

Olmaliq substitutes

AbdurahmonovRukhadzeToshmatovAbduhalilovIlyosovErmatovŠkrbićAkhrorovNabiyev

Match Recap: Lokomotiv vs Olmaliq

Olmaliq beat Lokomotiv 2-0 in Super League on May 14, 2024.

Goals: M. Kosimov (84'), K. Giyosov (88').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Tashkent.

Lokomotiv vs Olmaliq — Super League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lokomotiv vs Olmaliq