Olmaliq 2–1 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

Olmaliq

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lokomotiv

O. Kasyan 75'

Alvin Fortes 3'

S. Kodirkulov 36'

3/9/2021

Super League · Round 1OKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Olmaliq46%

×Draw25%

Lokomotiv29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlmaliqExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.17

Olmaliq

1.56

Lokomotiv

1.17

Olmaliq creates 33% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 74 away

1.86

creates per match

1.16

1.17

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Olmaliq

1.86

Lokomotiv

1.16

allows per match

Olmaliq

1.17

Lokomotiv

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw

71%

Olmaliq or Lokomotiv

75%

Draw or Lokomotiv

54%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+

24%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals

79%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

46%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

21%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

69%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

33%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

62%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.17 · 94 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.86 + Lokomotiv defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lokomotiv attack 1.16 + Olmaliq defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Olmaliq scores more

46%

level

25%

Lokomotiv scores more

29%

Olmaliq at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Alvin Fortes

5'

S. Tursunov

12'

V. Kozak← S. Rakhmanov

36'

S. Kodirkulov

39'

S. Sultanov← B. Ergashev

57'

E. Oripov

65'

S. Abdullaev

65'

D. Turopov← A. Amonov

66'

S. Abdullaev← J. Sidikov

75'

O. Kasyan

76'

A. Kasian

79'

J. Alijanov← G. Gulyamov

80'

S. Jurabekov

90+2'

Z. Polvonov← O. Kasyan

Olmaliq

Lokomotiv

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kasyan

⚽

Fortes

Manager: M. Qosimov

12'▲V. Kozak←▼S. Rakhmanov

39'▲S. Sultanov←▼B. Ergashev

90+2'▲Z. Polvonov←▼O. Kasyan

Olmaliq substitutes

KozakSultanovPolvonovOtakhonovJuraevKosimovSuleymanov

Manager: Micael Sequeira

65'▲D. Turopov←▼A. Amonov

66'▲S. Abdullaev←▼J. Sidikov

79'▲J. Alijanov←▼G. Gulyamov

Lokomotiv substitutes

TuropovAbdullaevAlijanovAbdujalilovIbragimovGanikhonovFayziyev

Match Recap: Olmaliq vs Lokomotiv

Olmaliq beat Lokomotiv 2-1 in Super League on March 9, 2021.

Goals: Alvin Fortes (3'), S. Kodirkulov (36'), O. Kasyan (75').

The match was played at OKMK Sport Majmuasi in Almalyk.

Olmaliq vs Lokomotiv — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Olmaliq vs Lokomotiv