Olmaliq 3–1 Buxoro: Result & Stats | Super League

Olmaliq

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Buxoro

5/26/2023

Super League · Round 12Stadion Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Olmaliq57%

×Draw24%

Buxoro19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlmaliqExpected goals in this matchBuxoro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.89

Olmaliq

1.74

Buxoro

0.89

Olmaliq creates 96% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 61 away

1.85

creates per match

0.64

1.14

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Olmaliq

1.85

Buxoro

0.64

allows per match

Olmaliq

1.14

Buxoro

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Buxoro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Buxoro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw

81%

Olmaliq or Buxoro

76%

Draw or Buxoro

43%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+

32%

Buxoro wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals

82%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

52%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

25%

Buxoro 1+ goals

59%

Buxoro 2+ goals

22%

Buxoro 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

75%

Buxoro (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.14 · 99 matches

Buxoro away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.62 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.85 + Buxoro defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.74

Buxoro attack 0.64 + Olmaliq defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Olmaliq scores more

57%

level

24%

Buxoro scores more

19%

Olmaliq at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff