Buxoro 0–1 Olmaliq: Result & Stats | Super League

Buxoro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olmaliq

11/22/2023

Super League · Round 25Buxoro Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Buxoro30%

×Draw28%

Olmaliq42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BuxoroExpected goals in this matchOlmaliq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.27

Buxoro

1.04

Olmaliq

1.27

Olmaliq creates 22% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 99 away

0.94

creates per match

1.15

1.40

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Buxoro

0.94

Olmaliq

1.15

allows per match

Buxoro

1.40

Olmaliq

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buxoro+0.00on par

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxoro ↓

Olmaliq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Buxoro or draw

58%

Buxoro or Olmaliq

72%

Draw or Olmaliq

70%

Winning margin

Buxoro wins by 2+

11%

Olmaliq wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Buxoro 1+ goals

65%

Buxoro 2+ goals

28%

Buxoro 3+ goals

9%

Olmaliq 1+ goals

72%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

36%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Buxoro (draw refunded)

42%

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxoro at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.40 · 62 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.14 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxoro attack 0.94 + Olmaliq defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Olmaliq attack 1.15 + Buxoro defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Buxoro scores more

30%

level

28%

Olmaliq scores more

42%

Olmaliq at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff