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Oliveirense vs Montalegre — Liga 3 2021

Oliveirense
Oliveirense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Montalegre
Montalegre
1/19/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 14Estádio Carlos Osório

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Oliveirense48%
×Draw23%
Montalegre29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveirense
1.75
Montalegre
1.30

Oliveirense creates 35% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Oliveirense
1.79
Montalegre
1.18

allows per match

Oliveirense
1.43
Montalegre
1.71

finishing

Oliveirense+0.00on par
Montalegre+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveirense ↓

Montalegre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Oliveirense or draw
71%
Oliveirense or Montalegre
77%
Draw or Montalegre
52%

Winning margin

Oliveirense wins by 2+
26%
Montalegre wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oliveirense 1+ goals
83%
Oliveirense 2+ goals
52%
Oliveirense 3+ goals
25%
Montalegre 1+ goals
73%
Montalegre 2+ goals
37%
Montalegre 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oliveirense (draw refunded)
63%
Montalegre (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveirense at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Montalegre away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveirense attack 1.79 + Montalegre defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Montalegre attack 1.18 + Oliveirense defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oliveirense scores more
48%
level
23%
Montalegre scores more
29%

Oliveirense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oliveirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oliveirense vs Montalegre

Oliveirense beat Montalegre 1-0 in Liga 3 on January 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Carlos Osório in Oliveira de Azeméis.