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Montalegre vs Oliveirense — Liga 3 2021

Montalegre
Montalegre
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Oliveirense
Oliveirense
8/29/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 3Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Montalegre29%
×Draw25%
Oliveirense47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montalegre
1.21
Oliveirense
1.61

Oliveirense creates 33% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

creates per match

Montalegre
1.21
Oliveirense
1.79

allows per match

Montalegre
1.43
Oliveirense
1.21

finishing

Montalegre+0.00on par
Oliveirense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montalegre ↓

Oliveirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Montalegre or draw
53%
Montalegre or Oliveirense
75%
Draw or Oliveirense
71%

Winning margin

Montalegre wins by 2+
12%
Oliveirense wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Montalegre 1+ goals
70%
Montalegre 2+ goals
34%
Montalegre 3+ goals
12%
Oliveirense 1+ goals
80%
Oliveirense 2+ goals
48%
Oliveirense 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Montalegre (draw refunded)
38%
Oliveirense (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montalegre at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Oliveirense away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montalegre attack 1.21 + Oliveirense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Oliveirense attack 1.79 + Montalegre defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Montalegre scores more
29%
level
25%
Oliveirense scores more
47%

Oliveirense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oliveirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montalegre vs Oliveirense

Montalegre beat Oliveirense 3-2 in Liga 3 on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira in Montalegre.