Oliveira Hospital 3–4 União de Leiria

Oliveira Hospital

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

União de Leiria

10/29/2022

Liga 3 · Round 7Estádio Municipal de Tábua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Oliveira Hospital32%

×Draw26%

União de Leiria42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oliveira HospitalExpected goals in this matchUnião de Leiria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.39

Oliveira Hospital

1.17

União de Leiria

1.39

União de Leiria creates 19% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 29 away

1.38

creates per match

1.55

1.23

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital

1.38

União de Leiria

1.55

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital

1.23

União de Leiria

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

União de Leiria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw

58%

Oliveira Hospital or União de Leiria

74%

Draw or União de Leiria

68%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+

13%

União de Leiria wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals

69%

Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals

33%

Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals

11%

União de Leiria 1+ goals

75%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

40%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)

43%

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.38 + União de Leiria defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

União de Leiria attack 1.55 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more

32%

level

26%

União de Leiria scores more

42%

União de Leiria at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff