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Oliveira Hospital vs União de Leiria — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
4/3/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 21Estádio Municipal de Oliveira do Hospital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Oliveira Hospital26%
×Draw26%
União de Leiria48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveira Hospital
1.00
União de Leiria
1.46

União de Leiria creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.45
União de Leiria
2.00

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital
0.91
União de Leiria
0.55

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw
52%
Oliveira Hospital or União de Leiria
74%
Draw or União de Leiria
74%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
9%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
63%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
26%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
8%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
77%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
43%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
35%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.45 + União de Leiria defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.00

União de Leiria attack 2.00 + Oliveira Hospital defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more
26%
level
26%
União de Leiria scores more
48%

União de Leiria at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oliveira Hospital vs União de Leiria

Oliveira Hospital and União de Leiria drew 1-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Oliveira do Hospital in Oliveira do Hospital.