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Oliveira Hospital vs GRAP — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
GRAP
GRAP
11/15/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 5Estádio Municipal de Oliveira do Hospital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oliveira Hospital66%
×Draw24%
GRAP10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveira Hospital
1.63
GRAP
0.46

Oliveira Hospital creates 254% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.45
GRAP
0.00

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital
0.91
GRAP
1.80

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par
GRAP+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

GRAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw
90%
Oliveira Hospital or GRAP
76%
Draw or GRAP
34%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
38%
GRAP wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
80%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
48%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
22%
GRAP 1+ goals
37%
GRAP 2+ goals
8%
GRAP 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
87%
GRAP (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

GRAP away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.45 + GRAP defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.63

GRAP attack 0.00 + Oliveira Hospital defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more
66%
level
24%
GRAP scores more
10%

Oliveira Hospital at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E: Oliveira Hospital 1–0 GRAP

Oliveira Hospital beat GRAP 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Oliveira do Hospital in Oliveira do Hospital.