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GRAP vs Oliveira Hospital — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

GRAP
GRAP
CANC
15:00
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
2/14/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 16Campo da Charneca dos Pousos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

GRAP12%
×Draw17%
Oliveira Hospital71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GRAP
0.86
Oliveira Hospital
2.37

Oliveira Hospital creates 176% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

GRAP
0.83
Oliveira Hospital
0.90

allows per match

GRAP
3.83
Oliveira Hospital
0.90

finishing

GRAP+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GRAP ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

GRAP or draw
29%
GRAP or Oliveira Hospital
83%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
88%

Winning margin

GRAP wins by 2+
4%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

GRAP 1+ goals
58%
GRAP 2+ goals
21%
GRAP 3+ goals
6%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
91%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
68%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

GRAP (draw refunded)
15%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GRAP at home — creates 0.83, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GRAP attack 0.83 + Oliveira Hospital defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Oliveira Hospital attack 0.90 + GRAP defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

GRAP scores more
12%
level
17%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
71%

Oliveira Hospital at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: GRAP host Oliveira Hospital

February 14, 2021: GRAP take on Oliveira Hospital in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

GRAP host Oliveira Hospital at Campo da Charneca dos Pousos.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.