Oliveira Hospital 3–2 Fontinhas: Result & Stats

Oliveira Hospital

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Fontinhas

3/12/2023

Liga 3 · Round 22Estádio Municipal de Tábua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Oliveira Hospital50%

×Draw24%

Fontinhas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oliveira HospitalExpected goals in this matchFontinhas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.11

Oliveira Hospital

1.65

Fontinhas

1.11

Oliveira Hospital creates 49% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 14 away

1.38

creates per match

1.00

1.23

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital

1.38

Fontinhas

1.00

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital

1.23

Fontinhas

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Fontinhas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

Fontinhas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw

74%

Oliveira Hospital or Fontinhas

76%

Draw or Fontinhas

50%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+

26%

Fontinhas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals

81%

Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals

49%

Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals

23%

Fontinhas 1+ goals

67%

Fontinhas 2+ goals

30%

Fontinhas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)

66%

Fontinhas (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

Fontinhas away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.38 + Fontinhas defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Fontinhas attack 1.00 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more

50%

level

24%

Fontinhas scores more

26%

Oliveira Hospital at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff