Fontinhas 0–1 Oliveira Hospital: Result & Stats

Fontinhas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oliveira Hospital

12/3/2022

Liga 3 · Round 11Estádio João Paulo II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fontinhas43%

×Draw27%

Oliveira Hospital30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FontinhasExpected goals in this matchOliveira Hospital

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.07

Fontinhas

1.35

Oliveira Hospital

1.07

Fontinhas creates 26% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 56 away

1.14

creates per match

0.93

1.21

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Fontinhas

1.14

Oliveira Hospital

0.93

allows per match

Fontinhas

1.21

Oliveira Hospital

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fontinhas+0.00on par

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontinhas ↓

Oliveira Hospital →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fontinhas or draw

70%

Fontinhas or Oliveira Hospital

73%

Draw or Oliveira Hospital

57%

Winning margin

Fontinhas wins by 2+

20%

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fontinhas 1+ goals

74%

Fontinhas 2+ goals

39%

Fontinhas 3+ goals

15%

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals

66%

Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals

29%

Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fontinhas (draw refunded)

59%

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontinhas at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontinhas attack 1.14 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Oliveira Hospital attack 0.93 + Fontinhas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fontinhas scores more

43%

level

27%

Oliveira Hospital scores more

30%

Fontinhas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fontinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff