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Oliveira Hospital vs Alverca — Liga 3 2021

Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Alverca
Alverca
1/21/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 16Estádio Municipal de Tábua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Oliveira Hospital37%
×Draw26%
Alverca37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveira Hospital
1.31
Alverca
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 45 away

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.38
Alverca
1.38

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.23
Alverca
1.24

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par
Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

Alverca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw
63%
Oliveira Hospital or Alverca
74%
Draw or Alverca
63%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
17%
Alverca wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
73%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
38%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
14%
Alverca 1+ goals
73%
Alverca 2+ goals
37%
Alverca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
50%
Alverca (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.38 + Alverca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Alverca attack 1.38 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more
37%
level
26%
Alverca scores more
37%

Oliveira Hospital at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oliveira Hospital vs Alverca

Alverca beat Oliveira Hospital 2-1 in Liga 3 on January 21, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Tábua in Tábua.