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Alverca vs Oliveira Hospital — Liga 3 2021

Alverca
Alverca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
11/3/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 10Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alverca54%
×Draw26%
Oliveira Hospital20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alverca
1.53
Oliveira Hospital
0.82

Alverca creates 87% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 56 away

creates per match

Alverca
1.49
Oliveira Hospital
0.93

allows per match

Alverca
0.71
Oliveira Hospital
1.57

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alverca or draw
80%
Alverca or Oliveira Hospital
74%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
46%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+
28%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals
78%
Alverca 2+ goals
45%
Alverca 3+ goals
20%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
56%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
20%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)
73%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 1.49 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.53

Oliveira Hospital attack 0.93 + Alverca defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alverca scores more
54%
level
26%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
20%

Alverca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alverca vs Oliveira Hospital

Alverca beat Oliveira Hospital 1-0 in Liga 3 on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo.