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Oliveira Hospital vs Alcains — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alcains
Alcains
12/20/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 9Estádio Municipal de Oliveira do Hospital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Oliveira Hospital64%
×Draw22%
Alcains14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveira Hospital
1.83
Alcains
0.71

Oliveira Hospital creates 158% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.45
Alcains
0.50

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital
0.91
Alcains
2.20

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par
Alcains+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

Alcains →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw
86%
Oliveira Hospital or Alcains
78%
Draw or Alcains
36%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
38%
Alcains wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
84%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
54%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
28%
Alcains 1+ goals
51%
Alcains 2+ goals
16%
Alcains 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
82%
Alcains (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Alcains away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.45 + Alcains defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.83

Alcains attack 0.50 + Oliveira Hospital defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more
64%
level
22%
Alcains scores more
14%

Oliveira Hospital at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E: Oliveira Hospital 3–0 Alcains

Oliveira Hospital beat Alcains 3-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on December 20, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Oliveira do Hospital in Oliveira do Hospital.