Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alcains vs Oliveira Hospital — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Alcains
Alcains
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
3/14/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 20Estádio Trigueiros do Aragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Alcains30%
×Draw32%
Oliveira Hospital38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcains
0.86
Oliveira Hospital
1.00

Oliveira Hospital creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Alcains
0.82
Oliveira Hospital
0.90

allows per match

Alcains
1.09
Oliveira Hospital
0.90

finishing

Alcains+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcains ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Alcains or draw
62%
Alcains or Oliveira Hospital
68%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
70%

Winning margin

Alcains wins by 2+
10%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Alcains 1+ goals
58%
Alcains 2+ goals
21%
Alcains 3+ goals
6%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
63%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
26%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alcains (draw refunded)
44%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcains at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcains attack 0.82 + Oliveira Hospital defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Oliveira Hospital attack 0.90 + Alcains defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alcains scores more
30%
level
32%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
38%

Oliveira Hospital at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcains vs Oliveira Hospital

Oliveira Hospital beat Alcains 3-2 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Trigueiros do Aragão in Alcains.