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Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Independiente De Chivilcoy — Torneo Federal A 2018

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente De Chivilcoy
Independiente De Chivilcoy
10/1/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 32Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Olimpo Bahia Blanca53%
×Draw29%
Independiente De Chivilcoy18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.29
Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.63

Olimpo Bahia Blanca creates 105% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 87 away

creates per match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.56
Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.67

allows per match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0.59
Independiente De Chivilcoy
1.01

finishing

Olimpo Bahia Blanca+0.00on par
Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpo Bahia Blanca ↓

Independiente De Chivilcoy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olimpo Bahia Blanca or draw
82%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca or Independiente De Chivilcoy
71%
Draw or Independiente De Chivilcoy
47%

Winning margin

Olimpo Bahia Blanca wins by 2+
25%
Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1+ goals
72%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2+ goals
37%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 3+ goals
14%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals
47%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals
13%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Olimpo Bahia Blanca (draw refunded)
74%
Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpo Bahia Blanca at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.59 · 108 matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.01 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca attack 1.56 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.29

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 0.67 + Olimpo Bahia Blanca defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Olimpo Bahia Blanca scores more
53%
level
29%
Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more
18%

Olimpo Bahia Blanca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Olimpo Bahia Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2–1 Independiente De Chivilcoy

Olimpo Bahia Blanca beat Independiente De Chivilcoy 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.