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Independiente De Chivilcoy vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Independiente De Chivilcoy
Independiente De Chivilcoy
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
6/22/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 15Estadio Raúl Orlando Lungarzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy42%
×Draw30%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente De Chivilcoy
1.14
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0.87

Independiente De Chivilcoy creates 31% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 102 away

creates per match

Independiente De Chivilcoy
1.33
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.03

allows per match

Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.71
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0.95

finishing

Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par
Olimpo Bahia Blanca+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente De Chivilcoy ↓

Olimpo Bahia Blanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Independiente De Chivilcoy or draw
72%
Independiente De Chivilcoy or Olimpo Bahia Blanca
70%
Draw or Olimpo Bahia Blanca
58%

Winning margin

Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+
18%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals
68%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals
32%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals
11%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1+ goals
58%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2+ goals
22%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)
60%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente De Chivilcoy at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.71 · 86 matches

Olimpo Bahia Blanca away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.95 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 1.33 + Olimpo Bahia Blanca defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Olimpo Bahia Blanca attack 1.03 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more
42%
level
30%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca scores more
28%

Independiente De Chivilcoy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente De Chivilcoy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente De Chivilcoy vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca

Independiente De Chivilcoy and Olimpo Bahia Blanca drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Orlando Lungarzo in Chivilcoy, Provincia de Buenos Aires.