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Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP — Torneo Federal A 2018

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
3/1/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 21Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Olimpo Bahia Blanca55%
×Draw27%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.44
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.70

Olimpo Bahia Blanca creates 106% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 83 away

creates per match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.56
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.82

allows per match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0.59
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.31

finishing

Olimpo Bahia Blanca+0.00on par
Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpo Bahia Blanca ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olimpo Bahia Blanca or draw
82%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
73%
Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
45%

Winning margin

Olimpo Bahia Blanca wins by 2+
28%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1+ goals
76%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2+ goals
42%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 3+ goals
18%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals
50%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals
16%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Olimpo Bahia Blanca (draw refunded)
75%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpo Bahia Blanca at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.59 · 108 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca attack 1.56 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 0.82 + Olimpo Bahia Blanca defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Olimpo Bahia Blanca scores more
55%
level
27%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more
18%

Olimpo Bahia Blanca at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Olimpo Bahia Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2–1 Ferro Carril Oeste LP

Olimpo Bahia Blanca beat Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires).