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Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
8/21/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 18Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP37%
×Draw31%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.05
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 102 away

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.16
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.03

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.88
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0.95

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par
Olimpo Bahia Blanca+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste LP ↓

Olimpo Bahia Blanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or draw
68%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP or Olimpo Bahia Blanca
69%
Draw or Olimpo Bahia Blanca
63%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+
15%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals
65%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals
28%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals
9%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1+ goals
62%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2+ goals
25%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)
53%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.88 · 82 matches

Olimpo Bahia Blanca away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.95 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.16 + Olimpo Bahia Blanca defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Olimpo Bahia Blanca attack 1.03 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more
37%
level
31%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca scores more
32%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2–1 Olimpo Bahia Blanca

Ferro Carril Oeste LP beat Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres in General Pico, Provincia La Pampa.