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Olimpik Sarajevo vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — Premijer Liga 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
5/12/2021Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 30Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo45%
×Draw26%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.48
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.12

Olimpik Sarajevo creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.13
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.71

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.53
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.82

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
71%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
74%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
55%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
22%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
77%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
43%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
19%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
67%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
31%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
61%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.13 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.71 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
45%
level
26%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
29%

Olimpik Sarajevo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olimpik Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Olimpik Sarajevo 0–0 Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Olimpik Sarajevo and Mladost Doboj Kakanj drew 0-0 in Premijer Liga on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase in Sarajevo.