Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1–0 Olimpik Sarajevo

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olimpik Sarajevo

8/29/2020

Premijer Liga · Round 6MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj49%

×Draw27%

Olimpik Sarajevo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Doboj KakanjExpected goals in this matchOlimpik Sarajevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.91

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.44

Olimpik Sarajevo

0.91

Mladost Doboj Kakanj creates 58% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

0.29

1.52

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.00

Olimpik Sarajevo

0.29

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.52

Olimpik Sarajevo

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Olimpik Sarajevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw

76%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Olimpik Sarajevo

73%

Draw or Olimpik Sarajevo

51%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

24%

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

76%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

42%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

18%

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals

60%

Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals

23%

Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

67%

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Olimpik Sarajevo away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.00 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 0.29 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

49%

level

27%

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more

24%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mladost Doboj Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff