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Olimpik Sarajevo vs Krupa na Vrbasu — Premijer Liga 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
11/7/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 14Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo46%
×Draw27%
Krupa na Vrbasu27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.39
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.00

Olimpik Sarajevo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.13
Krupa na Vrbasu
0.47

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.53
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.65

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
73%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Krupa na Vrbasu
73%
Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu
54%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
22%
Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
75%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
40%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
16%
Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
63%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
26%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
63%
Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.13 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 0.47 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
46%
level
27%
Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
27%

Olimpik Sarajevo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Olimpik Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Olimpik Sarajevo 1–1 Krupa na Vrbasu

Olimpik Sarajevo and Krupa na Vrbasu drew 1-1 in Premijer Liga on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Otoka in Sarajevo.