Krupa na Vrbasu 3–0 Olimpik Sarajevo

Krupa na Vrbasu

FT

3 – 0

Olimpik Sarajevo

5/23/2021

Premijer Liga · Round 32Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu56%

×Draw26%

Olimpik Sarajevo18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krupa na VrbasuExpected goals in this matchOlimpik Sarajevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.71

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.50

Olimpik Sarajevo

0.71

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 111% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

0.29

1.13

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.13

Olimpik Sarajevo

0.29

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.13

Olimpik Sarajevo

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

Olimpik Sarajevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw

82%

Krupa na Vrbasu or Olimpik Sarajevo

74%

Draw or Olimpik Sarajevo

44%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

29%

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

78%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

44%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

19%

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals

51%

Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals

16%

Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

76%

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Olimpik Sarajevo away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.13 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.50

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 0.29 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

56%

level

26%

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more

18%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Krupa na Vrbasu 3–0 Olimpik Sarajevo

Krupa na Vrbasu beat Olimpik Sarajevo 3-0 in Premijer Liga on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu in Krupa na Vrbasu.

Krupa na Vrbasu vs Olimpik Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Premijer Liga: Krupa na Vrbasu 3–0 Olimpik Sarajevo