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Olimpik Sarajevo vs Igman Konjic — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
CANC
00:00
Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
3/21/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 18Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo60%
×Draw24%
Igman Konjic17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.71
Igman Konjic
0.77

Olimpik Sarajevo creates 122% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 51 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
2.00
Igman Konjic
1.04

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
0.50
Igman Konjic
1.41

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Igman Konjic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
83%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Igman Konjic
76%
Draw or Igman Konjic
40%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
34%
Igman Konjic wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
82%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
51%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
24%
Igman Konjic 1+ goals
54%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
18%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
78%
Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 2.00 + Igman Konjic defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Igman Konjic attack 1.04 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
60%
level
24%
Igman Konjic scores more
17%

Olimpik Sarajevo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Olimpik Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Olimpik Sarajevo host Igman Konjic

March 21, 2020: Olimpik Sarajevo take on Igman Konjic in 1st League - FBiH. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Olimpik Sarajevo host Igman Konjic at Stadion Otoka.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.