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Igman Konjic vs Olimpik Sarajevo — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
0 – 1
Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
8/24/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 3Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Igman Konjic41%
×Draw27%
Olimpik Sarajevo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.33
Olimpik Sarajevo
1.15

Igman Konjic creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 8 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.53
Olimpik Sarajevo
1.50

allows per match

Igman Konjic
0.80
Olimpik Sarajevo
1.13

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Olimpik Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
68%
Igman Konjic or Olimpik Sarajevo
73%
Draw or Olimpik Sarajevo
59%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
19%
Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
74%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
38%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
15%
Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
68%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
32%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
56%
Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Olimpik Sarajevo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.53 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.50 + Igman Konjic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
41%
level
27%
Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
32%

Igman Konjic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Igman Konjic vs Olimpik Sarajevo

Olimpik Sarajevo beat Igman Konjic 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.