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Olimpik-Mobiuz vs Lokomotiv — Pro League A 2026

Olimpik-Mobiuz
Olimpik-Mobiuz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
D. Tukhsanov 56'
M. Zoirov 90'
A. Yuldashev 10'
6/16/2025Pro League APro League A · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Olimpik-Mobiuz35%
×Draw25%
Lokomotiv40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.32
Lokomotiv
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 10 away

creates per match

Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.54
Lokomotiv
1.80

allows per match

Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.07
Lokomotiv
1.10

finishing

Olimpik-Mobiuz+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik-Mobiuz ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Olimpik-Mobiuz or draw
60%
Olimpik-Mobiuz or Lokomotiv
75%
Draw or Lokomotiv
65%

Winning margin

Olimpik-Mobiuz wins by 2+
15%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Olimpik-Mobiuz 1+ goals
73%
Olimpik-Mobiuz 2+ goals
38%
Olimpik-Mobiuz 3+ goals
15%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
76%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
42%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Olimpik-Mobiuz (draw refunded)
46%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik-Mobiuz at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik-Mobiuz attack 1.54 + Lokomotiv defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.32

Lokomotiv attack 1.80 + Olimpik-Mobiuz defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olimpik-Mobiuz scores more
35%
level
25%
Lokomotiv scores more
40%

Lokomotiv at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Yuldashev
56'
D. Tukhsanov
90'
M. Zoirov
Olimpik-Mobiuz
Lokomotiv
F. Nishanov
Manager: F. Nishanov
G. Kolosovskii
Manager: G. Kolosovskii

Pro League A: Olimpik-Mobiuz 1–2 Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv beat Olimpik-Mobiuz 2-1 in Pro League A on June 16, 2025.

Goals: A. Yuldashev (10'), D. Tukhsanov (56'), M. Zoirov (90').