Lokomotiv 0–1 Olimpik-Mobiuz: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olimpik-Mobiuz

M. Rejabaliev 64' (pen)

4/27/2025

Pro League A · Round 4Lokomotiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lokomotiv62%

×Draw23%

Olimpik-Mobiuz16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchOlimpik-Mobiuz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.78

Lokomotiv

1.80

Olimpik-Mobiuz

0.78

Lokomotiv creates 131% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 30 away

1.90

creates per match

1.17

0.40

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Lokomotiv

1.90

Olimpik-Mobiuz

1.17

allows per match

Lokomotiv

0.40

Olimpik-Mobiuz

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Olimpik-Mobiuz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Olimpik-Mobiuz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

84%

Lokomotiv or Olimpik-Mobiuz

77%

Draw or Olimpik-Mobiuz

38%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

36%

Olimpik-Mobiuz wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

83%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

54%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

27%

Olimpik-Mobiuz 1+ goals

54%

Olimpik-Mobiuz 2+ goals

18%

Olimpik-Mobiuz 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

80%

Olimpik-Mobiuz (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Olimpik-Mobiuz away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.90 + Olimpik-Mobiuz defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.80

Olimpik-Mobiuz attack 1.17 + Lokomotiv defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

62%

level

23%

Olimpik-Mobiuz scores more

16%

Lokomotiv at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

M. RejabalievPenalty

Lokomotiv

Olimpik-Mobiuz

Manager: G. Kolosovskii

Manager: F. Nishanov