Olimpik Donetsk 1–4 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

Olimpik Donetsk

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Dynamo Kyiv

S. Politylo 23'

V. Tsygankov 87'

V. Supryaha 56'

T. Zaviyskyi 15' (OG)

V. Buyalskyi 8'

8/21/2020

Premier League · Round 1Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Olimpik Donetsk18%

×Draw21%

Dynamo Kyiv61%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpik DonetskExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

2.04

Olimpik Donetsk

1.03

Dynamo Kyiv

2.04

Dynamo Kyiv creates 98% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 98 away

1.11

creates per match

2.27

1.82

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Olimpik Donetsk

1.11

Dynamo Kyiv

2.27

allows per match

Olimpik Donetsk

1.82

Dynamo Kyiv

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpik Donetsk+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Donetsk ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Olimpik Donetsk or draw

39%

Olimpik Donetsk or Dynamo Kyiv

79%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

82%

Winning margin

Olimpik Donetsk wins by 2+

7%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Olimpik Donetsk 1+ goals

64%

Olimpik Donetsk 2+ goals

28%

Olimpik Donetsk 3+ goals

9%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

87%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

60%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Donetsk (draw refunded)

23%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Donetsk at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.95 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Donetsk attack 1.11 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Olimpik Donetsk defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Olimpik Donetsk scores more

18%

level

21%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

61%

Dynamo Kyiv at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

V. Buyalskyi↳ O. Karavaev

15'

T. ZaviyskyiOwn goal

23'

S. Politylo↳ T. Chogadze

46'

G. Rodrigues← H. Tsitaishvili

56'

V. Supryaha↳ V. Buyalskyi

65'

Carlos De Pena

66'

D. Balanyuk← S. Zahedi

66'

P. Lukyanchuk← T. Chogadze

66'

B. Lednev← V. Buyalskyi

75'

A. Kravchuk← D. Romanovskij

75'

V. Tsygankov← C. de Pena

80'

K. Kirilenko← Y. Pasich

81'

Y. Neplyakh← I. Snurnitsyn

84'

O. Andrievskyi← M. Shaparenko

84'

M. Duelund← V. Supryaha

87'

V. Tsygankov↳ G. Rodrigues

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OlimpikDynamo

Overview

37%Possession63%

6Total Shots10

3Corners6

19Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots10

2On Target6

4Off Target4

Passing

37%Possession63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2