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Dynamo Kyiv vs Olimpik Donetsk — Premier League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Olimpik Donetsk
Olimpik Donetsk
A. Besedin 90', 30'
V. Buyalskyi 77'
F. Alvarenga 19'
2/13/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Olimpiysky National Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv59%
×Draw23%
Olimpik Donetsk18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.82
Olimpik Donetsk
0.90

Dynamo Kyiv creates 102% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 28 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.07
Olimpik Donetsk
1.04

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.75
Olimpik Donetsk
1.57

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par
Olimpik Donetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Olimpik Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
82%
Dynamo Kyiv or Olimpik Donetsk
77%
Draw or Olimpik Donetsk
41%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
34%
Olimpik Donetsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
84%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
54%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
27%
Olimpik Donetsk 1+ goals
59%
Olimpik Donetsk 2+ goals
23%
Olimpik Donetsk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
76%
Olimpik Donetsk (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.75 · 99 matches

Olimpik Donetsk away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.07 + Olimpik Donetsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.82

Olimpik Donetsk attack 1.04 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
59%
level
23%
Olimpik Donetsk scores more
18%

Dynamo Kyiv at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Taddeus Fomakwang
14'
Artem Besedin
15'
Issiar Drame
19'
F. Alvarenga↳ T. Nkeng
30'
A. Besedin
45'
Carlos De Pena
45'
Vladislav Khameliuk
63'
T. Zaviyskyi← V. Khamelyuk
75'
G. Rodrigues← C. de Pena
76'
T. Chogadze← D. Romanovskij
77'
Taddeus Fomakwang
77'
Taddeus Fomakwang
77'
V. Buyalskyi↳ V. Tsygankov
84'
Talles← Y. Pasich
89'
Orest Lebedenko
90'
Denys Popov
90+1'
O. Andrievskyi← M. Shaparenko
90+1'
B. Lednev← V. Buyalskyi
90'
A. Besedin

Possession

58%Dynamo

Shots

14Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoOlimpik
Overview
58%Possession42%
14Total Shots2
9Corners0
10Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots2
6On Target1
8Off Target1
Passing
58%Possession42%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls12
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards2
3Offsides1

Premier League: Dynamo Kyiv 3–1 Olimpik Donetsk

Dynamo Kyiv beat Olimpik Donetsk 3-1 in Premier League on February 13, 2021.

Goals: F. Alvarenga (19'), A. Besedin (30', 90'), V. Buyalskyi (77').

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 2.

The match was played at Olimpiysky National Sports Complex in Kyiv.