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Olimpija Ljubljana vs KI Klaksvik — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KI Klaksvik
KI Klaksvik
11/9/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 4Stadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Olimpija Ljubljana51%
×Draw26%
KI Klaksvik24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpija Ljubljana
1.55
KI Klaksvik
0.97

Olimpija Ljubljana creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Olimpija Ljubljana
1.44
KI Klaksvik
1.00

allows per match

Olimpija Ljubljana
0.94
KI Klaksvik
1.67

finishing

Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par
KI Klaksvik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpija Ljubljana ↓

KI Klaksvik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olimpija Ljubljana or draw
76%
Olimpija Ljubljana or KI Klaksvik
74%
Draw or KI Klaksvik
49%

Winning margin

Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+
26%
KI Klaksvik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals
79%
Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
46%
Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals
20%
KI Klaksvik 1+ goals
62%
KI Klaksvik 2+ goals
25%
KI Klaksvik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)
68%
KI Klaksvik (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpija Ljubljana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

KI Klaksvik away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.44 + KI Klaksvik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

KI Klaksvik attack 1.00 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Olimpija Ljubljana scores more
51%
level
26%
KI Klaksvik scores more
24%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Olimpija Ljubljana 2–0 KI Klaksvik

Olimpija Ljubljana beat KI Klaksvik 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Stožice in Ljubljana.