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Olimpija Ljubljana vs FC Noah — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
FC Noah
FC Noah
8/21/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff roundStadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Olimpija Ljubljana61%
×Draw22%
FC Noah17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpija Ljubljana
1.95
FC Noah
0.93

Olimpija Ljubljana creates 110% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

creates per match

Olimpija Ljubljana
1.44
FC Noah
0.92

allows per match

Olimpija Ljubljana
0.94
FC Noah
2.46

finishing

Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpija Ljubljana ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Olimpija Ljubljana or draw
83%
Olimpija Ljubljana or FC Noah
78%
Draw or FC Noah
39%

Winning margin

Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+
37%
FC Noah wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals
86%
Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
58%
Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals
31%
FC Noah 1+ goals
61%
FC Noah 2+ goals
24%
FC Noah 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)
78%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpija Ljubljana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

FC Noah away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.44 + FC Noah defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.95

FC Noah attack 0.92 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Olimpija Ljubljana scores more
61%
level
22%
FC Noah scores more
17%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpija Ljubljana vs FC Noah

FC Noah beat Olimpija Ljubljana 4-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Stožice in Ljubljana.