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FC Noah vs Olimpija Ljubljana — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

FC Noah
FC Noah
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
8/28/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff roundAbovyan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC Noah60%
×Draw23%
Olimpija Ljubljana17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Noah
1.75
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.81

FC Noah creates 116% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

FC Noah
2.08
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.93

allows per match

FC Noah
0.69
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.43

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par
Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

Olimpija Ljubljana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw
83%
FC Noah or Olimpija Ljubljana
77%
Draw or Olimpija Ljubljana
40%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+
34%
Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals
83%
FC Noah 2+ goals
52%
FC Noah 3+ goals
25%
Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals
56%
Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
19%
Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)
78%
Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Olimpija Ljubljana away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.08 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.75

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 0.93 + FC Noah defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC Noah scores more
60%
level
23%
Olimpija Ljubljana scores more
17%

FC Noah at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: FC Noah 3–2 Olimpija Ljubljana

FC Noah beat Olimpija Ljubljana 3-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 28, 2025.

The match was played at Abovyan City Stadium in Abovyan.