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Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje — 1. SNL 2026

Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Celje
Celje
8/3/20251. SNL1. SNL · Round 3Stadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Olimpija Ljubljana40%
×Draw25%
Celje34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpija Ljubljana
1.45
Celje
1.32

Olimpija Ljubljana creates 10% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 125 away

creates per match

Olimpija Ljubljana
1.80
Celje
1.67

allows per match

Olimpija Ljubljana
0.98
Celje
1.10

finishing

Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par
Celje+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpija Ljubljana ↓

Celje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Olimpija Ljubljana or draw
66%
Olimpija Ljubljana or Celje
75%
Draw or Celje
60%

Winning margin

Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+
19%
Celje wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals
77%
Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
42%
Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals
18%
Celje 1+ goals
73%
Celje 2+ goals
38%
Celje 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)
54%
Celje (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpija Ljubljana at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.98 · 125 matches

Celje away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.10 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.80 + Celje defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.45

Celje attack 1.67 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olimpija Ljubljana scores more
40%
level
25%
Celje scores more
34%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje

Celje beat Olimpija Ljubljana 5-0 in 1. SNL on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Stožice in Ljubljana.