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Celje vs Olimpija Ljubljana — 1. SNL 2026

Celje
Celje
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
4/27/20251. SNL1. SNL · Round 32Stadion Z'dežele

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Celje42%
×Draw25%
Olimpija Ljubljana33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celje
1.50
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.31

Celje creates 15% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 124 away

creates per match

Celje
1.89
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.49

allows per match

Celje
1.13
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.10

finishing

Celje+0.00on par
Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celje ↓

Olimpija Ljubljana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Celje or draw
67%
Celje or Olimpija Ljubljana
75%
Draw or Olimpija Ljubljana
58%

Winning margin

Celje wins by 2+
20%
Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Celje 1+ goals
78%
Celje 2+ goals
44%
Celje 3+ goals
19%
Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals
73%
Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
38%
Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Celje (draw refunded)
56%
Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celje at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.13 · 126 matches

Olimpija Ljubljana away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celje attack 1.89 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.49 + Celje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Celje scores more
42%
level
25%
Olimpija Ljubljana scores more
33%

Celje at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Celje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celje vs Olimpija Ljubljana

Celje and Olimpija Ljubljana drew 3-3 in 1. SNL on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Z'dežele in Celje.