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Olimpija Ljubljana vs Birkirkara — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
7/22/2021UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundŠportni Park Šiška

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olimpija Ljubljana55%
×Draw27%
Birkirkara18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpija Ljubljana
1.47
Birkirkara
0.72

Olimpija Ljubljana creates 104% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

Olimpija Ljubljana
1.44
Birkirkara
0.50

allows per match

Olimpija Ljubljana
0.94
Birkirkara
1.50

finishing

Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par
Birkirkara+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpija Ljubljana ↓

Birkirkara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olimpija Ljubljana or draw
82%
Olimpija Ljubljana or Birkirkara
73%
Draw or Birkirkara
45%

Winning margin

Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+
28%
Birkirkara wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals
77%
Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
43%
Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals
18%
Birkirkara 1+ goals
51%
Birkirkara 2+ goals
16%
Birkirkara 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)
75%
Birkirkara (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpija Ljubljana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Birkirkara away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.44 + Birkirkara defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Birkirkara attack 0.50 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Olimpija Ljubljana scores more
55%
level
27%
Birkirkara scores more
18%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Birkirkara

Olimpija Ljubljana beat Birkirkara 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 22, 2021.

The match was played at Športni Park Šiška in Ljubljana.