Birkirkara 1–0 Olimpija Ljubljana: Result & Stats

Birkirkara

Pens

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olimpija Ljubljana

7/29/2021

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundMFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Birkirkara46%

×Draw30%

Olimpija Ljubljana24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirkirkaraExpected goals in this matchOlimpija Ljubljana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.80

Birkirkara

1.21

Olimpija Ljubljana

0.80

Birkirkara creates 51% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

0.93

0.67

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Birkirkara

1.00

Olimpija Ljubljana

0.93

allows per match

Birkirkara

0.67

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birkirkara+0.00on par

Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birkirkara ↓

Olimpija Ljubljana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Birkirkara or draw

76%

Birkirkara or Olimpija Ljubljana

70%

Draw or Olimpija Ljubljana

54%

Winning margin

Birkirkara wins by 2+

20%

Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Birkirkara 1+ goals

70%

Birkirkara 2+ goals

34%

Birkirkara 3+ goals

12%

Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals

55%

Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals

19%

Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Birkirkara (draw refunded)

65%

Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birkirkara at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Olimpija Ljubljana away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birkirkara attack 1.00 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 0.93 + Birkirkara defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Birkirkara scores more

46%

level

30%

Olimpija Ljubljana scores more

24%

Birkirkara at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Birkirkara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff