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Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij — 1. SNL 2026

Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aluminij
Aluminij
4/20/20241. SNL1. SNL · Round 32Stadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Olimpija Ljubljana55%
×Draw23%
Aluminij22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpija Ljubljana
1.77
Aluminij
1.02

Olimpija Ljubljana creates 74% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 90 away

creates per match

Olimpija Ljubljana
1.80
Aluminij
1.07

allows per match

Olimpija Ljubljana
0.98
Aluminij
1.74

finishing

Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par
Aluminij+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpija Ljubljana ↓

Aluminij →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Olimpija Ljubljana or draw
78%
Olimpija Ljubljana or Aluminij
77%
Draw or Aluminij
45%

Winning margin

Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+
31%
Aluminij wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals
83%
Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
53%
Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals
26%
Aluminij 1+ goals
64%
Aluminij 2+ goals
27%
Aluminij 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)
72%
Aluminij (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpija Ljubljana at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.98 · 125 matches

Aluminij away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.74 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.80 + Aluminij defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.77

Aluminij attack 1.07 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Olimpija Ljubljana scores more
55%
level
23%
Aluminij scores more
22%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij

Olimpija Ljubljana beat Aluminij 5-0 in 1. SNL on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Stožice in Ljubljana.