Aluminij 1–2 Olimpija Ljubljana: Result & Stats

Aluminij

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Olimpija Ljubljana

2/5/2026

1. SNL · Round 20Sportni park Aluminij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Aluminij29%

×Draw26%

Olimpija Ljubljana45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AluminijExpected goals in this matchOlimpija Ljubljana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.51

Aluminij

1.16

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.51

Olimpija Ljubljana creates 30% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 124 away

1.21

creates per match

1.49

1.53

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Aluminij

1.21

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.49

allows per match

Aluminij

1.53

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aluminij+0.00on par

Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminij ↓

Olimpija Ljubljana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Aluminij or draw

55%

Aluminij or Olimpija Ljubljana

74%

Draw or Olimpija Ljubljana

71%

Winning margin

Aluminij wins by 2+

12%

Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Aluminij 1+ goals

69%

Aluminij 2+ goals

32%

Aluminij 3+ goals

11%

Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals

78%

Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals

44%

Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Aluminij (draw refunded)

39%

Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminij at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

Olimpija Ljubljana away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminij attack 1.21 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.49 + Aluminij defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aluminij scores more

29%

level

26%

Olimpija Ljubljana scores more

45%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff