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Olímpico Totana vs Mazarrón FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
11/17/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Estadio Juan Cayuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Olímpico Totana39%
×Draw27%
Mazarrón FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpico Totana
1.27
Mazarrón FC
1.15

Olímpico Totana creates 10% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 63 away

creates per match

Olímpico Totana
1.20
Mazarrón FC
1.21

allows per match

Olímpico Totana
1.09
Mazarrón FC
1.33

finishing

Olímpico Totana+0.00on par
Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico Totana ↓

Mazarrón FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olímpico Totana or draw
67%
Olímpico Totana or Mazarrón FC
73%
Draw or Mazarrón FC
61%

Winning margin

Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
17%
Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
72%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
36%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
14%
Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
68%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
32%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
54%
Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpico Totana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico Totana attack 1.20 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olímpico Totana scores more
39%
level
27%
Mazarrón FC scores more
33%

Olímpico Totana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olímpico Totana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olímpico Totana 3 – 2 Mazarrón FC

Olímpico Totana beat Mazarrón FC 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Cayuela in Totana.