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Mazarrón FC vs Olímpico Totana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
2/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Mazarrón FC44%
×Draw28%
Olímpico Totana28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazarrón FC
1.31
Olímpico Totana
1.00

Mazarrón FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 50 away

creates per match

Mazarrón FC
1.33
Olímpico Totana
0.98

allows per match

Mazarrón FC
1.02
Olímpico Totana
1.28

finishing

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par
Olímpico Totana+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazarrón FC ↓

Olímpico Totana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mazarrón FC or draw
72%
Mazarrón FC or Olímpico Totana
72%
Draw or Olímpico Totana
56%

Winning margin

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
20%
Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
73%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
38%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
14%
Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
63%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
26%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
61%
Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazarrón FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Olímpico Totana away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazarrón FC attack 1.33 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Olímpico Totana attack 0.98 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mazarrón FC scores more
44%
level
28%
Olímpico Totana scores more
28%

Mazarrón FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mazarrón FC vs Olímpico Totana

Olímpico Totana beat Mazarrón FC 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón in Mazarrón.