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Olímpico Totana vs Lorca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lorca
Lorca
4/11/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Juan Cayuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olímpico Totana68%
×Draw19%
Lorca13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpico Totana
2.13
Lorca
0.78

Olímpico Totana creates 173% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Olímpico Totana
1.20
Lorca
0.47

allows per match

Olímpico Totana
1.09
Lorca
3.07

finishing

Olímpico Totana+0.00on par
Lorca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico Totana ↓

Lorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Olímpico Totana or draw
87%
Olímpico Totana or Lorca
81%
Draw or Lorca
32%

Winning margin

Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
44%
Lorca wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
88%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
63%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
35%
Lorca 1+ goals
54%
Lorca 2+ goals
18%
Lorca 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
84%
Lorca (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpico Totana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

Lorca away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico Totana attack 1.20 + Lorca defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.13

Lorca attack 0.47 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Olímpico Totana scores more
68%
level
19%
Lorca scores more
13%

Olímpico Totana at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Olímpico Totana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olímpico Totana vs Lorca

Olímpico Totana and Lorca drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Cayuela in Totana.