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Lorca vs Olímpico Totana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca
Lorca
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
5/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lorca23%
×Draw26%
Olímpico Totana51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca
0.91
Olímpico Totana
1.52

Olímpico Totana creates 67% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 50 away

creates per match

Lorca
0.53
Olímpico Totana
0.98

allows per match

Lorca
2.07
Olímpico Totana
1.28

finishing

Lorca+0.00on par
Olímpico Totana+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca ↓

Olímpico Totana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lorca or draw
49%
Lorca or Olímpico Totana
74%
Draw or Olímpico Totana
77%

Winning margin

Lorca wins by 2+
8%
Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lorca 1+ goals
60%
Lorca 2+ goals
23%
Lorca 3+ goals
6%
Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
78%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
45%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lorca (draw refunded)
31%
Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Olímpico Totana away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca attack 0.53 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.91

Olímpico Totana attack 0.98 + Lorca defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lorca scores more
23%
level
26%
Olímpico Totana scores more
51%

Olímpico Totana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Olímpico Totana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorca vs Olímpico Totana

Olímpico Totana beat Lorca 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.