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Olímpico do Montijo vs Belenenses II — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Olímpico do Montijo
Olímpico do Montijo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Belenenses II
Belenenses II
10/18/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 14Campo da Liberdade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Olímpico do Montijo32%
×Draw27%
Belenenses II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpico do Montijo
1.14
Belenenses II
1.32

Belenenses II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Olímpico do Montijo
0.91
Belenenses II
0.73

allows per match

Olímpico do Montijo
1.91
Belenenses II
1.36

finishing

Olímpico do Montijo+0.00on par
Belenenses II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico do Montijo ↓

Belenenses II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olímpico do Montijo or draw
59%
Olímpico do Montijo or Belenenses II
73%
Draw or Belenenses II
68%

Winning margin

Olímpico do Montijo wins by 2+
13%
Belenenses II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Olímpico do Montijo 1+ goals
68%
Olímpico do Montijo 2+ goals
32%
Olímpico do Montijo 3+ goals
11%
Belenenses II 1+ goals
73%
Belenenses II 2+ goals
38%
Belenenses II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Olímpico do Montijo (draw refunded)
44%
Belenenses II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpico do Montijo at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Belenenses II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico do Montijo attack 0.91 + Belenenses II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Belenenses II attack 0.73 + Olímpico do Montijo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olímpico do Montijo scores more
32%
level
27%
Belenenses II scores more
41%

Belenenses II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Belenenses II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olímpico do Montijo vs Belenenses II

Olímpico do Montijo beat Belenenses II 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Campo da Liberdade in Montijo.