Belenenses II 1–0 Olímpico do Montijo

Belenenses II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olímpico do Montijo

3/10/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 3Campo Fernando Magalhaes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belenenses II47%

×Draw28%

Olímpico do Montijo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belenenses IIExpected goals in this matchOlímpico do Montijo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.91

Belenenses II

1.36

Olímpico do Montijo

0.91

Belenenses II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.73

creates per match

0.82

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Belenenses II

0.73

Olímpico do Montijo

0.82

allows per match

Belenenses II

1.00

Olímpico do Montijo

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belenenses II+0.00on par

Olímpico do Montijo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belenenses II ↓

Olímpico do Montijo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Belenenses II or draw

75%

Belenenses II or Olímpico do Montijo

72%

Draw or Olímpico do Montijo

53%

Winning margin

Belenenses II wins by 2+

22%

Olímpico do Montijo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Belenenses II 1+ goals

74%

Belenenses II 2+ goals

39%

Belenenses II 3+ goals

16%

Olímpico do Montijo 1+ goals

60%

Olímpico do Montijo 2+ goals

23%

Olímpico do Montijo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Belenenses II (draw refunded)

65%

Olímpico do Montijo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belenenses II at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Olímpico do Montijo away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belenenses II attack 0.73 + Olímpico do Montijo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Olímpico do Montijo attack 0.82 + Belenenses II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Belenenses II scores more

47%

level

28%

Olímpico do Montijo scores more

25%

Belenenses II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Belenenses II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff