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Olímpic Xàtiva vs Intercity — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Olímpic Xàtiva
Olímpic Xàtiva
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Intercity
Intercity
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 10Estadio La Murta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Olímpic Xàtiva31%
×Draw29%
Intercity41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.02
Intercity
1.23

Intercity creates 21% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 27 away

creates per match

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.30
Intercity
1.44

allows per match

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.02
Intercity
0.74

finishing

Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par
Intercity+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpic Xàtiva ↓

Intercity →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olímpic Xàtiva or draw
59%
Olímpic Xàtiva or Intercity
71%
Draw or Intercity
69%

Winning margin

Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+
11%
Intercity wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals
64%
Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals
27%
Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals
8%
Intercity 1+ goals
71%
Intercity 2+ goals
35%
Intercity 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)
43%
Intercity (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpic Xàtiva at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Intercity away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 1.30 + Intercity defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.02

Intercity attack 1.44 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olímpic Xàtiva scores more
31%
level
29%
Intercity scores more
41%

Intercity at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Olímpic Xàtiva 0–0 Intercity

Olímpic Xàtiva and Intercity drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Murta in Xàtiva.