Intercity 1–1 Olímpic Xàtiva: Result & Stats

Intercity

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olímpic Xàtiva

2/7/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 13Poliesportiu Sant Joan d'Alacant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Intercity54%

×Draw26%

Olímpic Xàtiva20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IntercityExpected goals in this matchOlímpic Xàtiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.84

Intercity

1.56

Olímpic Xàtiva

0.84

Intercity creates 86% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 44 away

1.72

creates per match

0.73

0.96

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Intercity

1.72

Olímpic Xàtiva

0.73

allows per match

Intercity

0.96

Olímpic Xàtiva

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Intercity+0.00on par

Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intercity ↓

Olímpic Xàtiva →

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Intercity or draw

80%

Intercity or Olímpic Xàtiva

74%

Draw or Olímpic Xàtiva

46%

Winning margin

Intercity wins by 2+

29%

Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+

Team goals

Intercity 1+ goals

79%

Intercity 2+ goals

46%

Intercity 3+ goals

21%

Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals

57%

Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals

21%

Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Intercity (draw refunded)

73%

Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Intercity at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Olímpic Xàtiva away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Intercity attack 1.72 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 0.73 + Intercity defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Intercity scores more

54%

level

26%

Olímpic Xàtiva scores more

20%

Intercity at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff