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Olimpia Zambrów vs Legionovia Legionowo — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Zambrów
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
5/18/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Olimpia Zambrów37%
×Draw23%
Legionovia Legionowo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Zambrów
1.63
Legionovia Legionowo
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 70 away

creates per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.64
Legionovia Legionowo
1.69

allows per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.74
Legionovia Legionowo
1.63

finishing

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Zambrów ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Olimpia Zambrów or draw
60%
Olimpia Zambrów or Legionovia Legionowo
77%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
63%

Winning margin

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+
18%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals
80%
Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals
48%
Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals
22%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
82%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
51%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)
48%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Zambrów at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.64 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olimpia Zambrów scores more
37%
level
23%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
40%

Legionovia Legionowo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Olimpia Zambrów 3–1 Legionovia Legionowo

Olimpia Zambrów beat Legionovia Legionowo 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Zambrów.