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Legionovia Legionowo vs Olimpia Zambrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Zambrów
8/13/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo51%
×Draw23%
Olimpia Zambrów26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.79
Olimpia Zambrów
1.20

Legionovia Legionowo creates 49% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 49 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
2.00
Olimpia Zambrów
1.14

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.26
Olimpia Zambrów
1.59

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Olimpia Zambrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
74%
Legionovia Legionowo or Olimpia Zambrów
77%
Draw or Olimpia Zambrów
49%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
28%
Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
83%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
53%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
26%
Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals
70%
Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals
34%
Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
67%
Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Olimpia Zambrów away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.79

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.14 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
51%
level
23%
Olimpia Zambrów scores more
26%

Legionovia Legionowo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Legionovia Legionowo 1 – 2 Olimpia Zambrów

Olimpia Zambrów beat Legionovia Legionowo 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.